With the freshness of Obama wearing down like a new car smell, it’s back to politics as usual, given the clarity that the grumpy old man surprisingly is keeping the race close. Normally a failing administration in an election year would cause the opposing candidate to be at least double digits in the lead.
Despite the crystal grazing even when backed by polls and analyses that favor Obama, there is no certainty he will be the clear winner. Albeit the youth vote in the primaries was overwhelmingly and enthusiastically, the general campaign is losing its luster by pressing Obama to sound more like an ordinary politician. Of course, the convention’s drama—granting a stage for Obama’s oratory—will again effect a swelling youthful vigor, but if his debates do not display articulate and sharply knowledgeable issues and problem-solving the short attention span of youth will as usual wane in interest.
Many experts predict the black turnout will make Obama competitive even in the south, yet no one really has a handle on to what extent this will intensify white backlash and its turnout. This applies to Hillary’s swing states as well such as Pennsylvania, W. Virginia and Ohio, not to mention the backlash of the Cuban vote in south Florida.
Race aside, moreover, no one really knows—since unfortunately religion and subcultures are hugely influential—how strong the forces still hung up on God, gays and guns are willing to put them behind for the good of the nation’s foreign relations, economy, infrastructure, and energy independence.
I just hope Bill Clinton will be proven wrong that the democrats are in all intents and purposes sailing along on the cloud of a fairy tale.
Copyright © 2008 Richard R. Kennedy All rights reserved. Revised: Aug 16, 2008.
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