Constructive gadfly
Published on December 1, 2003 By stevendedalus In Politics

 “Yankee Go Home” doesn’t apply to South Korea where only a half year ago its citizens demonstrated against our 37,000 troops stationed there — what with the north’s incessant provocation. After fifty years the south is nevertheless more than a match against its neighbor despite its larger army but poorly equipped. Even though South Korea spends ten times what the north does in armament — $320 per capita, or 3.4 percent of its GNP — it could fortify itself independent of the US, except for a nuclear threat, if its expenditure were modestly increased per capita.

North Korea, on the other hand, spends $255 per capita on military protection, or 28.6 percent of its meager gross national product (GNP). As long as the U.S. values it as a strategic base South Korea will never make an effort to defend itself.Likewise Europe has chosen to spend less on military power and as a consequence tries to worm out of difficult world problems by peaceful means or rely on U.S. military strength.

On the other hand, when delving into comparative military expense, the major nations in Europe do indeed carry their share and if ever truly united could be militarily competitive. For instance, the U.S. spends $1,056 per capita on military protection [more now I trust] or 3.8 percent of its gross national product (GNP). France, hardly an appeaser, spends a remarkable $826 per capita, or 3.1 percent of its GNP but more than Britain which is $572 per capita on military protection, or 3 percent of its gross national product (GNP).

In total dollars France spends $14 billion more than Britain, and $29 billion; less than Russia which spends 11.5% of its GNP. Germany because of U.S. presence is only 1.9 percent of GNP and $496 per capita; still its total expenditure is some $41 billion compared to Spain’s $8½ billion.

Nonetheless, if one considers the NATO members all together — including Canada and Turkey — the total expenditure of over 200 billion is virtually on a par with the U.S. From this vantage point, we can hardly think of Europe as slackers. If Russia should join, NATO’s total expenditures [excluding the U.S.] will exceed our total military expenditures by approximately $50 billion.

Given that France at times is petulant as for example when De Gaulle withdrew its military from NATO because US was so dominant, it found its way back and contributed to peace-keeping in Bosnia and Kosovo. Of course, it was a strong participatory ally in the first Gulf War, and has troops in Afghanistan. Consensus — along with never forgetting their rapid surrender in WWII — confuses national pride and independence with appeasement. The French do have a point in believing that in a new millennium, perhaps there is an alternative to war.

If the US continues to flaunt its “only super power” status, it will surely lead to a united Europe with a formidable military — particularly with Russia — second to none. The United States must end its can-do-no-wrong posture and heed other nations with competing views or another arms race might ensue.
 
Comments (Page 1)
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on Dec 01, 2003
It doesn't work as you describe. There are a lot of problems with this kind of analysis.

First, your main problem is per capita spending. Secondly, I'd like to see where you're getting your statistics. The last time I checked France's GNP spending was not nearly that close to the US's.

Let's tackle the first sicne the second requires looking up stuff.

If I'm a 10 foot tall giant and I use 10% of my strength to push someone over I'm going to have a lot more might than a 2 foot tall hobbit using 8% of their strength right?

But it's actually much worse than that because military capabilities today requires huge investments into R&D. During the 90s, the US economy grew much faster than that of Europe. So in the recent past, the US has actually spent vastly more than the Europeans.

There is also a huge issue of redundancy in your stats. When you add all those stats together, you are seeming to imply that there would be perfect division of labor and no duplication of effort. Very unlikely.

The real issue is that of capabilities:

None of the NATO countries, except Britain, have a significant ability to project force outside their home terriitory. France has what? ONE half-working aircraft carrier. Their "airforces" are to various levels in pretty sad shape.

The problem I have with Europe wanting their own EU force is that as it stands now, the US is the one providing the bulk of the military forces. In essence, the US has been the one realistically gauranteeing European security and now the Europeans seem to want to have it both ways - US protection but also have their own military that the US doesn't get to have any say over.

It's like the teenager who buys a car and expects to be abel to drive it any time they want while living at home.

Personally, I would love NATO to go away. It's an expensive and IMO pointless institution. Then Europe can run off and have their own EU force. But right now, they aren't even making up the bulk of NATO as is.

NATO, after all, activated article 5 after 9/11. How many non-US NATO troops are in Afghanistan? I know there are some, but not many.
on Dec 01, 2003
Here's an article tat basically answers yours.


http://www.cato.org/research/articles/tupy-030501.html
on Dec 01, 2003
BTW, I don't know where you're getting your figures.

From the Cato institute:

US military spending in 2003: $380 billion. That's over $200 BILLION more than all of NATO combined.
on Dec 01, 2003
Good post stevendedalus.

Good response Draginol.

Carry on.
on Dec 01, 2003
Actually, what the US must do is continue pursuing all options that are in its interest to pursue. The time has come to see the world as what it is, a collection of nations *all* working for their own self-interest. First world nations, even allies, *compete* for dominance, and will continue to do so until we happen upon some utopian state wherein the concept of 'nation' is no longer needed. If the US 'calms down', it simply means they step back and allow another nation to capitalize on their reticence.

Military issues never spontaneously appear, they are always preceded by competition on some other front. Our troubles with Europe now have been simmering quietly in trade negotiations for decades. Average citizens are simply blind to such and take 'outrage' at face value. What people need to understand is that when an outspoken nation takes issue with a US policy, it is in their interest to take issue with it, not an opinion from a wizened old friend. If one looks deeply enough, as was the case in the recent European anti-war stance, 'outrage' can be seen for what it is, a thinly veiled, protectionist exercise.

I would suggest a bit of Machiavelli. The truth never wears out.


on Dec 01, 2003
what do you expect to happen 'If the US continues to flaunt its “only super power” status'? the liberal democracies to fight amongst themselves? brit and french troops occupying the east coast? the nova scotia missile crisis?

the only that will happen is if the us actually invades innocent countries (general guideline: if the country is run by a dictator who has killed millions of innocent people, it's not that innocent a country. nor if the country is hiding terrorists that killed thousands of civilians in one attack).
on Dec 01, 2003
dang, forgot to discuss the first paragraphs:

regardless of whether south korea's army is a match for north korea's or not you fail to note some very important facts.

seoul is not only the capital, but the economic and population center of south korea. it is also within artillery range of north korea. in the first minutes of a war, north korea could...no, would, kill thousand of of civilians. there is no way the us or south korea could possibly get all the massed artillery that north korea has prepped to hit seoul.

you also criticize the south koreans for not taking serious efforts to defend itself. but the north/south korean border is the most heavily fortified border in the world. i'm no expert, but my south korean friend from college was always joking about how the south korean armed forces weren't that great. he described how they had massive trouble finding some north korean commandos in south korea (the north often sends guys under the border through tunnels or on the coast in special minisubs) that had shot down a south korea helicopter. (i never checked out if it was true about the helicopter part) he also described that he had a temporary deferment on the draft since he was going to college.

also you imply that the only reason the us defends south korea is because of it's strategic value as a base.
"As long as the U.S. values it as a strategic base South Korea will never make an effort to defend itself."

well, that's one reason. the other is that they are a big trading partner with the united states.
on Dec 02, 2003
All the above are insightful comments; most, however, miss the point that some countries do make make an effort to appropriate for their own defense--inadequately, definitely. Why? Because we spoiled them for decades.
on Dec 02, 2003
Good posts.

I'm surprised that no-one has yet raised the point of qualiy versus quantity. The major focus for the European militaries over the past decade has been to reduce budgets but spend on higher quality equipment. The Eurofighter and airbus military transport planes are good examples of this. Europe is consolidating it's forces into compatible forces which can interact easily with each other. It's still a long way behind the US but the EU has absolutely no desire to ever have a military as large as the US. In case people didn't notice, the EU tends to focus far more heavily on diplomancy than force is solving problems (no this is not suggesting that either approach is more correct than the other). While the US may want to be able to fight 2.5 wars I doubt the EU would ever want the capability to fight more than 1.5.

I think the US needs to let the EU start forming a coherent army and stop interferring. I do agree with the US though that the command structure should be easily integrated with Nato.

Paul.
on Dec 02, 2003
Solitair - the EU forces aren't even capable of conducting night operations. "Quality" is not the word I would use to describe their militaries.
on Dec 02, 2003
BTW, I agree the US needs to let the EU form a coherent army. At the same time, I believe the US should be allowed to exit NATO. The two go hand in hand. If we're going to be stuck defending Europe, we should have some say over their defense handling.
on Dec 02, 2003
Bit harsh on the night operations. Many components of EU forces do have night capabilities. Part of the reason the EU wants to form a defense force (just an initial rapid response force for starters) is to have a high tech place the high tech components into a combined army capable of rapid deployment and all weather fighting worldwide).
I agree with you Draginol on the Nato issue though. There is no reason the US should not leave Nato and thus disband it. Many EU countries would be happy as they feel Nato has done it's job. The truth is though the the US wants Nato. Nato is no longer used to defend europe, but to provide a military stability pact between the countries involved. It provides the framework for allowing those countries military forces to practice interacting with each other. The US sees any internal EU defence force as a threat to this.

Paul.
on Dec 02, 2003
Dissolving Nato kind of leaves Great Britain out in the cold, doesn't it? It seems unlikely to me that they would prefer to place all their faith in a force jointly controlled by France and the like. If NATO is dissolved, it seems like there would have to be some replacement treaty between the US and GB, if for no other reason than to give them options that wouldn't require a consensus of EU nations.

Granted, they are autonomous and can do what they like, but I wonder what membership in a 'hard-coded' EU military treaty organization would demand in times when disagreement forces a member to take unilateral action. Hard to believe that mainland Europe wouldn't build in some form of punitive control when members opt to act on their own, or in tandem with outside elements against the wishes of other members.
on Dec 02, 2003
"If the US continues to flaunt its “only super power” status, it will surely lead to a united Europe with a formidable military — particularly with Russia — second to none. The United States must end its can-do-no-wrong posture and heed other nations with competing views or another arms race might ensue."

Since your conclusions -- that our actions will lead to a united Europe and a new arms race -- depend on questionable assumptions -- that we are "flaunting" our power (why the sneer quotes around "only super power" by the way?) and have a "can-do-no-wrong posture" -- your argument doesn't amount to much for those of us who haven't read Michael Moore.
on Dec 03, 2003
The United States should do no such thing. The United States is flaunting nothing, no-thing!!! What we have and what we have accomplished as a young nation speaks very clearly for itself. We have done exactly what former President Roosevelt instructed us to do years ago when he told us to, "walk softly and carry a big stick." We will continue to carry a big stick and protect our freedom and whatever else is rightfully ours and I don't care who wants to try and come and take it from us the terrorists, the bloody Russians, North Korea, China or even the Europeans. Bring 'em on! We have something for them all if they want it. The only problem I see is we are number one and since it is everyone's goal to be number one we take alot of mouth from everyone else because they want to be up here in our spot light. Well, word up, we are always happy to share but we ain't leavin'.
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