There are no easy answers to an exit strategy in Iraq. As Colin Powell implied, you break it, you own it. Bush has no alternative but to “stay the course” pretty much alone; anything else would be an admission of defeat. Kerry, too, has no other alternative until such time he actually possesses the tools of the Presidency with which he can set a completely new approach.
Of course, Bush’s staying the course has changed dramatically from its original intent of setting up a permanent strategic land base, together with democratization, and being in control of oil reserves not only to help pay for reconstruction but to loosen OPEC’s hold on production. Now under pressure from shortcomings, he must settle for a UN interim fix until there is total Iraqi independence while the occupation is entrenched as a reserve unit on call. Not even think tanks have clear crystal balls as to how this will develop. Thanks to his bull-headed rush to war, Bush is alienated — and completely without contrition — obviating hope in soliciting serious aid from major nations.
This is why the presidential campaign is no longer “jobs, stupid” but “foreign policy, stupid” that is so vital to our national defense against terrorism. What once was Middle East hatred for America because of our unquestioned faith in Israel has morphed into a neo-con domino theory to democratize all Arab and Iranian Muslims. The only way to change this perception is to start over with a new president, free of baggage, who can deal as a Dutch uncle with Israel and Palestine, both of which for too long have disrupted the prospect for peace in the Arab world; Kerry must also get tough with the neighboring nations in persuading them to join in peaceful dialogue and in concrete assistance in the reconstruction of a new Palestinian identity free of terrorism. On the Iraqi front, Kerry should reconcile with the UN and the Western nations by proposing an exit strategy that would work in tandem with NATO garrisons and UN peacekeeping forces until Iraq is reasonably stabilized.
If, however, as he takes the oath, Iraq is out of control — hopefully unlikely — owing to insurrectionists intent on civil war, he must either strategically withdraw US troops or forge a real coalition of major proportions and with “overwhelming force” terminate the opposition once and for all in order to return to things that matter most — homeland security and reshaping the thrust of the economy.
Copyright © 2004 Richard R. Kennedy All rights reserved. Revised: May 24, 2004.